Paul (purportedly hatched in 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany. Paul became internationally famous for correctly predicting the winner of Germany's seven matches at the 2010 World Cup, as well as the final.
During the divinations, Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each box marked on the outside with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. He chose the box with the flag of the winning team in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He correctly predicted a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.[1] His predictions were 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall. Paul was retired after the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The keeper at the aquarium claims that Paul was not the octopus which predicted the results for the 2008 UEFA European Football Championships, which would give him 100% accuracy overall.[2]
Paul was originally believed to have been hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre in Weymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain's centres in Oberhausen, Germany.[3] American cable television network ESPN later reported claims made in a Bild article (later republished by the Italian press) [4] that Paul the Octopus had been caught in April 2010, by Verena Bartsch, off the island of Elba in April 2010.[5][6]
His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children's writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.[7]
According to DPA, local businessmen in O Carballiño a town in Galicia, Spain collectively raised around €30,000 as a "transfer fee" to have Paul as the main attraction of the local Fiesta del Pulpo festival.[9] Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nonetheless.[10]
After accusations of betrayal by the German newspaper Westfälische Rundschau, the Spanish prime minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero promised to send a team of bodyguards to protect Paul, while the environment minister Elena Espinosa said she would give Paul protection under conservation laws so that Germans do not eat him.[11]
Paul is expected to die before the UEFA Euro 2012, as common octopuses live on average no more than two years. Its owners said there would be no more predictions, effectively sending Paul into retirement.[12]
Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament.[3][13] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate the contents of) was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[14]
Paul's apparent success was comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.[15][16]
Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1/2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and only the successful animals gain public attention after the fact.[15][16] However, if Paul or other octopuses[17] felt attracted for whatever reasons to the flagged boxes of Germany or Spain, their predictions would be much more exact than tossing a coin.[citation needed
